The Impact of Secondary Schooling in Kenya: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Published in Journal of Human Resources, 2018


I estimate the impacts of secondary school on human capital, occupational choice, and fertility for young adults in Kenya. Probability of admission to government secondary school rises sharply at a score close to the national mean on a standardized eighth grade examination, permitting me to estimate causal effects of schooling in a regression discontinuity framework. I combine administrative test score data with a survey of young adults to estimate these impacts. My results show that secondary schooling increases human capital. For men, I find a drop in low-skill self-employment; for women, I find a reduction in teen pregnancy.

Other versions

Link to published paper in the Journal of Human Resources

Pre-print unformatted 2016 manuscript (pdf)

Earlier version appears as World Bank WPS 7384, August 2015, also available from SSRN


Data and analysis files: (hosted at github)


Blog coverage by David Evans on Development Impact: Regression Discontinuity Porn

Featured in World Bank Development Research e-Newsletter September 2015

Other details

JEL codes: I21, I28, J00, O12, O15

Recommended citation: Ozier, Owen. "The Impact of Secondary Schooling in Kenya: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis." Journal of Human Resources 53, no. 1 (2018): 157-188.